A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
