Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.