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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still